As of the time of writing, the prediction market Polymarket indicates a 62% likelihood that Bitcoin will reach $100,000, driven by a post-Trump victory rally in cryptocurrency prices.
Once Bitcoin surpassed $85,000, speculation surged that it could hit $100,000 before the year’s end, with the market’s “greed index” hitting a five-month high. By the evening of November 11, shares predicting Bitcoin would reach this mark had risen by 87% to $0.62, with trading volumes exceeding $2.7 million and probability reaching 62%.
Polymarket, a platform known for political bets, continues to attract significant attention, with its largest market—”Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris”—surpassing $3 billion in wagers.
Following Trump’s win, the cryptocurrency market saw rapid growth, with Bitcoin hitting $88,000 within 24 hours.
Many in the community believe the victory could lead to positive shifts in the market, including potential reforms at the SEC and a more favorable regulatory framework. Bitcoin’s fear and greed index has also turned bullish, reaching 76—the highest since June—signaling widespread optimism in the industry.
Most Polymarket Users Report Losses
Despite Polymarket’s accurate election predictions, often outperforming traditional polling, data shows that 88% of its users experience losses, with 336,000 out of 378,000 unique wallets in the red. The largest segment lost between $0 and $100, and only around 4,000 wallets (less than 1% of users) report profits over $1,000.
A trader named Theo4, who bet $45 million across various prediction markets, primarily on a Trump win, may have profited up to $78.7 million.
Chainalysis has identified Theo4 as a French national with extensive finance and trading experience. Although Polymarket confirms no signs of market manipulation, French regulators are considering banning the platform for gambling violations.
Polymarket’s lack of KYC verification allows users to bet freely, often via VPN, raising concerns about insider trading. The platform is unavailable in the U.S. and would face oversight from the CFTC if registered there.
